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Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:01 pm
by Elli21486
It's that time of year again as we get closer to Anime Boston 2018. With that, let's talk about the weather and what to expect. Surprisingly, this is the 4th year I have started this thread so if you want to see the past threads, just click on one of the links:

Weather in Boston 2017
Weather in Boston 2016
Weather in Boston 2015

I think by now, you can get a hint that predicting the weather is unrealistic as it can either be hot or cold and it range from sunny to windy to rain to snow. It is definitely worth preparing for the worst just in case. I'll will check and see later this month to come out with a prediction so stay tuned.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm
by Xias
I always know the convention is fast approaching once this thread gets started! Thanks for this!

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am
by MandaTifa
Oh good, my favorite thread is back! :D

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm
by Fetch
Like last year, we have to hope that the weather does not do a repeat of 1997 (April Fools Blizzard)

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:50 pm
by Nenie
I'm tired of the cold, but I'm use to this now. With the bag checks available, I don't mind wearing my hefty coat into the con.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:48 am
by Elli21486
Xias wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm
I always know the convention is fast approaching once this thread gets started! Thanks for this!
MandaTifa wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am
Oh good, my favorite thread is back! :D
Hahaha, I'm always glad to this thread. It's good practice for me before the busy season starts at my job.
Fetch wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm
Like last year, we have to hope that the weather does not do a repeat of 1997 (April Fools Blizzard)
Nenie wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:50 pm
I'm tired of the cold, but I'm use to this now. With the bag checks available, I don't mind wearing my hefty coat into the con.
In all honesty, I am not even sure if we need to worry about snow or not. This year has been unusually warm so I would not be surprised if this year's Anime Boston had 60F+ temps.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:42 pm
by Painted_Outlaw
If the weather stays any way similar to how it is today (where I am, it's 32 but bright and sunny), I could see it being a good con weekend. That's emphasis on the "if", though.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:54 am
by slippers
:idea: :idea: :idea: Time for some data :idea: :idea: :idea:

I spent a while looking into the historical weather data available at http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/. There are two long-running, high-quality stations in the area: BOSTON and JAMAICA PLAIN. So I downloaded all the data for those two stations and started playing around with it in a spreadsheet. Then I filtered it to only include March 23-April 8 (a week before and after this year's con dates) and got some stats. Here's what I found:

Average Daily High: 51.5 °F
Average Daily Low: 35 °F

Chance the daily high is...
Hot: 9%
60s: 13%
50s: 33%
40s: 37%
Cold: 8%

Chance of rain (or very rarely snow):
None: 42%
Less than 1/2 inch: 39%
More than 1/2 inch: 19%

Pie chart showing the chances:
piechart.png
piechart.png (38.55 KiB) Viewed 156 times
Records:
Record High: 92 °F (1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)
Record Low: 13 °F (1960-03-26, Boston station)
Record Rain: 4.29 inches (2004-04-01, Boston station)
Record Snow: 23 inches (1997-04-01, JP station; Boston had 22.4)
Record Temp swing: 51 °F (High of 92 °F, Low of 41 °F, 1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:18 pm
by Elli21486
slippers wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:54 am
:idea: :idea: :idea: Time for some data :idea: :idea: :idea:

I spent a while looking into the historical weather data available at http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/. There are two long-running, high-quality stations in the area: BOSTON and JAMAICA PLAIN. So I downloaded all the data for those two stations and started playing around with it in a spreadsheet. Then I filtered it to only include March 23-April 8 (a week before and after this year's con dates) and got some stats. Here's what I found:

Average Daily High: 51.5 °F
Average Daily Low: 35 °F

Chance the daily high is...
Hot: 9%
60s: 13%
50s: 33%
40s: 37%
Cold: 8%

Chance of rain (or very rarely snow):
None: 42%
Less than 1/2 inch: 39%
More than 1/2 inch: 19%

Pie chart showing the chances:
piechart.png

Records:
Record High: 92 °F (1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)
Record Low: 13 °F (1960-03-26, Boston station)
Record Rain: 4.29 inches (2004-04-01, Boston station)
Record Snow: 23 inches (1997-04-01, JP station; Boston had 22.4)
Record Temp swing: 51 °F (High of 92 °F, Low of 41 °F, 1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)
Hahaha, sounds like me. I have the record of Anime Boston weather since it first stated, based on Logan Airport's METAR data...

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:51 am
by slippers
The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has put out their March 30-day and March-April-May 3-month climate forecasts and we can get a bit more information from them.

Note that climate forecasting is a very different thing from weather forecasting. They do not and can not make predictions about individual days this far in advance, but they can say that based on the way La Niña is going plus the current state of the Madden–Julian oscillation, the month as a whole might average out a certain way.

So what do they say for March? Well, here's the temperature map:
march.png
march.png (22.4 KiB) Viewed 57 times
They're saying that for Boston, there's a decent chance that March as a whole averages out to a bit warmer than normal.

Obviously that's nothing we can plan around, but you can treat it as slightly good news.

On the CPC website you can find out more, like the precipitation forecast (normal for us), longer range forecasts (looks like we're in for a hot summer), and the very detailed, capslock-on text forecast.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm
by Elli21486
I've been getting a lot of chatter from local mets about this Spring being on the warmer side as well. However coming from experience, Boston's weather is unpredictable this time of season. Tonight's snowstorm is a great example since most mets were dismissing the storm when it started showing up in models on Monday February 12. Jump to today and they are expecting 2-4 inches of snow in the Boston area by tomorrow morning with snow rate of roughly 1-2 inches per hour. Of course, look at a little later in the week and temps may reach 50F+. Even though they say we may get as high as 70F+ next week, there is no guarantee since I have seen many times where a forecast say 60F+ day 5 days ahead and it ends up being in the upper 40s.

As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:52 pm
by BasharOfTheAges
Elli21486 wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm
As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.
That's always been the common wisdom going back 100+ years, yea, but I've gotten the impression that forecast modeling has gotten much better over the past few decades. Is that not the case? I've been told by meteorologist types that forecasts today in 2018 are as accurate 3-4 days out as they used to be 12 hours out in the early 90s.

Re: Weather in Boston 2018

Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:14 pm
by Elli21486
BasharOfTheAges wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:52 pm
Elli21486 wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm
As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.
That's always been the common wisdom going back 100+ years, yea, but I've gotten the impression that forecast modeling has gotten much better over the past few decades. Is that not the case? I've been told by meteorologist types that forecasts today in 2018 are as accurate 3-4 days out as they used to be 12 hours out in the early 90s.
It is more accurate today than it was in the 90s. However, it is not a 100% accurate when it comes to a 3-4 day forecast, which is why I mention minor to some changes in that area.