Weather in Boston 2018

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:01 pm

It's that time of year again as we get closer to Anime Boston 2018. With that, let's talk about the weather and what to expect. Surprisingly, this is the 4th year I have started this thread so if you want to see the past threads, just click on one of the links:

Weather in Boston 2017
Weather in Boston 2016
Weather in Boston 2015

I think by now, you can get a hint that predicting the weather is unrealistic as it can either be hot or cold and it range from sunny to windy to rain to snow. It is definitely worth preparing for the worst just in case. I'll will check and see later this month to come out with a prediction so stay tuned.

Xias · Post by **Xias** » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm

I always know the convention is fast approaching once this thread gets started! Thanks for this!

Post by **MandaTifa** » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am

Oh good, my favorite thread is back!

Fetch · Post by **Fetch** » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm

Like last year, we have to hope that the weather does not do a repeat of 1997 (April Fools Blizzard)

Nenie · Post by **Nenie** » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:50 pm

I'm tired of the cold, but I'm use to this now. With the bag checks available, I don't mind wearing my hefty coat into the con.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:48 am

Xias wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm
I always know the convention is fast approaching once this thread gets started! Thanks for this!

MandaTifa wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am
Oh good, my favorite thread is back!

Hahaha, I'm always glad to this thread. It's good practice for me before the busy season starts at my job.

Fetch wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 pm
Like last year, we have to hope that the weather does not do a repeat of 1997 (April Fools Blizzard)

Nenie wrote: ↑
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:50 pm
I'm tired of the cold, but I'm use to this now. With the bag checks available, I don't mind wearing my hefty coat into the con.

In all honesty, I am not even sure if we need to worry about snow or not. This year has been unusually warm so I would not be surprised if this year's Anime Boston had 60F+ temps.

Painted_Outlaw · Post by **Painted_Outlaw** » Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:42 pm

If the weather stays any way similar to how it is today (where I am, it's 32 but bright and sunny), I could see it being a good con weekend. That's emphasis on the "if", though.

slippers · Post by **slippers** » Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:54 am

Time for some data

I spent a while looking into the historical weather data available at http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/. There are two long-running, high-quality stations in the area: BOSTON and JAMAICA PLAIN. So I downloaded all the data for those two stations and started playing around with it in a spreadsheet. Then I filtered it to only include March 23-April 8 (a week before and after this year's con dates) and got some stats. Here's what I found:

Average Daily High: 51.5 °F
Average Daily Low: 35 °F

Chance the daily high is...
Hot: 9%
60s: 13%
50s: 33%
40s: 37%
Cold: 8%

Chance of rain (or very rarely snow):
None: 42%
Less than 1/2 inch: 39%
More than 1/2 inch: 19%

Pie chart showing the chances:

: piechart.png (38.55 KiB) Viewed 3078 times

Records:
Record High: 92 °F (1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)
Record Low: 13 °F (1960-03-26, Boston station)
Record Rain: 4.29 inches (2004-04-01, Boston station)
Record Snow: 23 inches (1997-04-01, JP station; Boston had 22.4)
Record Temp swing: 51 °F (High of 92 °F, Low of 41 °F, 1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:18 pm

slippers wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:54 am
Time for some data

I spent a while looking into the historical weather data available at http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/. There are two long-running, high-quality stations in the area: BOSTON and JAMAICA PLAIN. So I downloaded all the data for those two stations and started playing around with it in a spreadsheet. Then I filtered it to only include March 23-April 8 (a week before and after this year's con dates) and got some stats. Here's what I found:

Average Daily High: 51.5 °F
Average Daily Low: 35 °F

Chance the daily high is...
Hot: 9%
60s: 13%
50s: 33%
40s: 37%
Cold: 8%

Chance of rain (or very rarely snow):
None: 42%
Less than 1/2 inch: 39%
More than 1/2 inch: 19%

Pie chart showing the chances:
piechart.png

Records:
Record High: 92 °F (1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)
Record Low: 13 °F (1960-03-26, Boston station)
Record Rain: 4.29 inches (2004-04-01, Boston station)
Record Snow: 23 inches (1997-04-01, JP station; Boston had 22.4)
Record Temp swing: 51 °F (High of 92 °F, Low of 41 °F, 1998-04-01, Jamaica Plain station)

Hahaha, sounds like me. I have the record of Anime Boston weather since it first stated, based on Logan Airport's METAR data...

slippers · Post by **slippers** » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:51 am

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has put out their March 30-day and March-April-May 3-month climate forecasts and we can get a bit more information from them.

Note that climate forecasting is a very different thing from weather forecasting. They do not and can not make predictions about individual days this far in advance, but they can say that based on the way La Niña is going plus the current state of the Madden–Julian oscillation, the month as a whole might average out a certain way.

So what do they say for March? Well, here's the temperature map:

: march.png (22.4 KiB) Viewed 2979 times

They're saying that for Boston, there's a decent chance that March as a whole averages out to a bit warmer than normal.

Obviously that's nothing we can plan around, but you can treat it as slightly good news.

On the CPC website you can find out more, like the precipitation forecast (normal for us), longer range forecasts (looks like we're in for a hot summer), and the very detailed, capslock-on text forecast.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm

I've been getting a lot of chatter from local mets about this Spring being on the warmer side as well. However coming from experience, Boston's weather is unpredictable this time of season. Tonight's snowstorm is a great example since most mets were dismissing the storm when it started showing up in models on Monday February 12. Jump to today and they are expecting 2-4 inches of snow in the Boston area by tomorrow morning with snow rate of roughly 1-2 inches per hour. Of course, look at a little later in the week and temps may reach 50F+. Even though they say we may get as high as 70F+ next week, there is no guarantee since I have seen many times where a forecast say 60F+ day 5 days ahead and it ends up being in the upper 40s.

As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.

YouTube · Post by **BasharOfTheAges** » Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Elli21486 wrote: ↑
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm
As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.

That's always been the common wisdom going back 100+ years, yea, but I've gotten the impression that forecast modeling has gotten much better over the past few decades. Is that not the case? I've been told by meteorologist types that forecasts today in 2018 are as accurate 3-4 days out as they used to be 12 hours out in the early 90s.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:14 pm

BasharOfTheAges wrote: ↑
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Elli21486 wrote: ↑
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:41 pm
As a general rule of thumb, this is a good idea for us Bostonians:
7+ day forecast - keep the forecast in mind but don't pay much attention to it
5-7 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect major changes
3-5 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect some changes
24+ hour to 3 day forecast - watch the forecast but expect minor changes
Within 24 hour forecast - that is the weather that will mostly happen, unless you are in the transitional seasons (Spring and Fall). In that case, the forecast is accurate about 90% of the time.
That's always been the common wisdom going back 100+ years, yea, but I've gotten the impression that forecast modeling has gotten much better over the past few decades. Is that not the case? I've been told by meteorologist types that forecasts today in 2018 are as accurate 3-4 days out as they used to be 12 hours out in the early 90s.

It is more accurate today than it was in the 90s. However, it is not a 100% accurate when it comes to a 3-4 day forecast, which is why I mention minor to some changes in that area.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:10 pm

And this is why you do not take long term prediction/forecasting seriously. Already hearing things have flipped with temps being around average and a possible storm coming soon.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:52 am

With a storm less than 24 hours away and us being in the final stretch before Anime Boston 2018, I thought it would be best to say this... PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER.

Now that that got your attention, let me explain. March is coming in like a lion with a powerful storm that will most likely devastate our area. However, that is not the end of it. There are already indications of another strong storms for sometime next week. If the pattern continues, it can go into Anime Boston when it comes around. We are all looking closely at it.

Nenie · Post by **Nenie** » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:13 am

It's icy rain today! It would suck if the weather was like this during the convention weekend.

AnnaNeko · Post by **AnnaNeko** » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:46 pm

Nenie wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:13 am
It's icy rain today! It would suck if the weather was like this during the convention weekend.

*cough* rain is a bit of an understatement... seeing how half the city near the water was straight up drowning
Now the wind, THAT was some serious insanity today!!

Nenie · Post by **Nenie** » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:30 pm

Oh right I haven't checked how things were in eastern mass. I'm all the way in western mass.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:19 pm

OK, so things have gone from bad to worse... depending on the type of person you are. As of now, the met community is looking at 2 storms very closely, both of which are for snow lovers.

The first storm is suppose to hit our area between March 7 - March 9. As of now, it looks like a good chance of getting 6-12 inches of snow with the Cape getting the least amounts. However, it also looks like a slight shift to the east or west can change those amounts.

The second storm is suppose to hit our area between March 11 - March 14. However, since it is so far away, it is best to concentrate all the focus on the storm for this week and wait until we get closer to the next storm.

Mirotic · Post by **Mirotic** » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:18 pm

I'm slightly north of Boston but we got approximately 14 inches so far...it's still snowing.
Sounds like Boston only got 6 inches or so this storm.

slippers · Post by **slippers** » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:18 pm

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has just put out their experimental 3-4 week outlook for March 24–April 6.

As before, this is not a weather forecast. This is an average over a bunch of different possible scenarios and over a full 2 week date range to come out with a single map. But it does help us narrow down put some probabilities on things.

So here's the maps:

: WK34temp-20180309.png (17.22 KiB) Viewed 2408 times

: WK34prcp-20180309.png (18.24 KiB) Viewed 2408 times

They're saying there's not enough information to know what's going on temperature-wise, but it's likely that the weeks around AB will be drier than usual.

(Of course, that could mean it's dry before and after con, but raining during, or even a bad dice roll and it's rainy for weeks, but it's better chances for dry.)

Reading into the text discussion we can learn that they use a bunch of different forecast models for making their 3-4 week forecasts, and... they don't agree with each other right now. They're predicting a bunch of different things for major climate patterns like the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and for the weather systems going through that they affect. Not surprising, since 3-4 weeks out is a long time.

However, they all kind of end up agreeing that the northeast will be drier than usual. And that's not bad news.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:15 pm

A drier AB is all we need. Honestly, if we do not get another major snowstorm after this one and before AB, I can see no snow being on the ground by the time AB comes around.

<Edit> Well, speaking so soon, there is another chance of a storm around March 21. <End of Edit>

Anyway, I think now is a good time to discuss some historical data in regards to past AB Weather.

Since the start of Anime Boston, there have been 4 past AB that falls around the same time of year from this year: AB2010 (April 2-4), AB2015 (April 3-5), AB 2016 (March 25-27), and AB2017 (March 31-April 2).

Temperatures
Of those 4 past Anime Boston, the warmest of the 4 was AB2010 with an average high of 69.33F. The coldest of the 4 was AB2017 with an average low of 33.1F.

Precipitation
Of those 4 past Anime Boston, 3/4 of them had some kind of precipitation with AB2017 being not only the wettest AB of the 4 but also the only one to record snow in the convention's entire history.

Wind
Of the 4 past Anime Boston, the windiest of them all was AB2015 with an average wind of 13.89mph. Of course, the strongest wind gust was recorded in AB2017 at 31.1mph.

Aurabolt · Post by **Aurabolt** » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:07 am

...This is the second AB to include on my birthday, which is March 30. Last year was the first.

I honestly don't remember the weather being a factor at all last year since I never left the Hynes. Would be nice if we didn't get snow again this year though.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:42 pm

We are now within the 14 Day forecast and for AB2018, here is what is being forecast. Keep it in mind but don't take it seriously yet.

Image Provided by: www.theweathernetwork.com

JosephW · Post by **JosephW** » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:00 pm

Yeah, even 7-day forecasts can change dramatically, in my experience.

But if it's gonna be in the 30s and 40s, I might just have to bring a coat and winter shoes along so that I don't freeze while standing outside.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:34 pm

JosephW wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:00 pm
Yeah, even 7-day forecasts can change dramatically, in my experience.

But if it's gonna be in the 30s and 40s, I might just have to bring a coat and winter shoes along so that I don't freeze while standing outside.

Techbically, 3 days can change dramatically as well...

spruter · Post by **spruter** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:55 pm

While I was checking the weather I noticed some April stormclouds tightening the noose on our fun.

: Capture.JPG (28.74 KiB) Viewed 2084 times

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:35 pm

spruter wrote: ↑
Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:55 pm
While I was checking the weather I noticed some April stormclouds tightening the noose on our fun.
Capture.JPG

It should be fine. After all, it really never dampened the fun in the past...

Kalyoth · Post by **Kalyoth** » Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:09 pm

Everyone should be prepared as if they had to go outside in the winter in New England. This might be - since we have had a lovely March this year - a very snowy, windy & wet environment. Cosplay & dress accordingly! 5th storm comes Wednesday night & another being talked about week of convention.

Kusuguru Usagi · Post by **Kusuguru Usagi** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:52 am

I heard on the radio this morning that it could reach the 50's by the end of next week.

Nenie · Post by **Nenie** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:24 am

It's funny how higher 40s and lower 50s is something to look forward to for the Anime Boston weekend. I mean 60s would be a luxury.

Victablook · Post by **Victablook** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:02 pm

if the weather ends up to be in the 50s with no wind, i will be extremely pleased this year.

YouTube · Post by **BasharOfTheAges** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:51 pm

Victablook wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:02 pm
if the weather ends up to be in the 50s with no wind, i will be extremely pleased this year.

50s is likely as of now... But no wind in that part of Boston is practically an impossibility. The buildings funnel it, so even a small breeze will feel like a strong gust.

JosephW · Post by **JosephW** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:54 pm

Mmhm, Darksky is showing Friday as having a high of 62 with just a little rain in the morning.

But that's still a week away, so it's subject to change.

Victablook · Post by **Victablook** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:41 pm

BasharOfTheAges wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:51 pm
50s is likely as of now... But no wind in that part of Boston is practically an impossibility. The buildings funnel it, so even a small breeze will feel like a strong gust.

agh, true. but a boy can dream.

JosephW · Post by **JosephW** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:23 pm

JosephW wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:54 pm
But that's still a week away, so it's subject to change.

Aaaaand it already changed.

Aurabolt · Post by **Aurabolt** » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:25 pm

The last 48 hours say hi. The weather could be something else entirely. It's entirey possible we could experience The Four Seasoms again.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:37 pm

OK guys, the moment has come. Time to do an image dump on here... XD

I like to do this a week prior to AB but I had some other things to do yesterday so couldn't. Anyway, here are the forecast from the local media outlets, Intellicast, and Accuweather.

Intellicast

Accuweather

WBZ (Ch. 4)

WCVB (Ch. 5)

WHDH (Ch. 7)

WFXT (Ch. 25)

NBC Boston

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:46 pm

Good news guys! With the exception of some precipitation, it looks like the weather would be nice for AB2018.

Intellicast

Accuweather

CBS Boston (Ch 4)

WCVB (Ch 5)

WHDH (Ch 7)

WFXT (Ch 25)

NBC Boston

JosephW · Post by **JosephW** » Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:18 pm

Yep, both days are showing mid-40s to high 50s, cloudy on Friday and clear on Saturday.

Noice. Maybe I won't have to bring a coat to the convention center on Friday. (though, ofc, I'll still have it in my car)

Nenie · Post by **Nenie** » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:53 pm

Hallelujah!

JosephW · Post by **JosephW** » Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:30 pm

Friday is now showing a little bit of light rain around noon time, but other than that, just about the same.

Looks like it's going to be rather nice, after getting 3 snowstorms in a row.

Elli21486 · Post by **Elli21486** » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:35 pm

Let's all agree, Anime Boston was extremely lucky this year. By the look of it, there are going to back to back storms in our area with the first of those storms happening this weekend during PAX East. I am going to be looking at the weather data soon but I do not think this AB broke any records.

THX1139 · Post by **THX1139** » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:14 pm

Lucked out this year.

AlbertSkisp · Post by **AlbertSkisp** » Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:28 am

I dont worry too much about weather in any run-its not something I have control over so I just have to take it. I do prefer it to be cool than hot though.
I did an ultra a couple of months ago where we had wind, rain, hail, a little sun-the conditions were bloody awful, yet it turned out to be one of my best runs.
Are you doing C2S Ploddie? I havent seen you in ages-hopefully we can catch up.